By Catherine Brown
"I am sad. Whatever the size of the faults we have committed, I really don't think we deserved this", lamented Michel Rocard, the French Socialist Party former prime minister and future presidential candidate. The SP enters the newly elected National Assembly with a mere 25% of its former deputies. It has been called the worst electoral defeat of a government in this century.
Even the Financial Times felt the SP had been rather harshly dealt with: "The SP sowed its wild oats way back in 1981-3 [when first elected], and since then has been a model of fiscal and monetary responsibility".
The Guardian described the results as "disproportionate" and the victorious French right as "one of the most unpleasant and genuinely reactionary forces in European politics".
Although the right — a coalition of the Gaullist Republican Assembly (RPR) and the Union of French Democracy (UDF) — increased its vote by a mere handful to 39.5%, it won 78% of the new deputies. This is the largest majority since the early 19th century.
The voting showed a rejection of all three major parties. The combined vote of the SP, the RPR and the UDF was 57%; five years earlier, it was 72%.
The French electoral system works in favour of parties, even small ones, with very strong pockets of support rather than an evenly spread vote. There are two rounds of voting: on the first Sunday, any number of candidates can run. The outright winners need more than 50%.
Of the 577 seats, only 80 were won in the first round, all by the right. On the second Sunday, candidates with over 12.5% are still in the running if they wish. In reality, frantic deals are usually struck in the intervening week to bring the final option down to two candidates.
Only the percentages of the first round are an accurate reflection of a party's support. The quirks in this system resulted in: the National Front (NF) with 12.4% and no deputies, the French Communist Party (PCF) with 9.2% and 23 deputies, the SP with 18% of the vote and 12% of the deputies, and the right with 39.5% and 484 deputies.
The SP failed to make the 58 deputy threshold, the unofficial hurdle to be considered a major party. It takes 58 deputies to move a censure motion against the government.
A sense of optimism and euphoria greeted the victorious SP presidential campaign in 1981. Twelve years later, "little remains of their promises", explained Daniel Bensaid, a candidate for the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR).
"If we look at the abolition of the death penalty, the Auroux laws on workplace democracy, retirement at 60 and decentralisation, we find that decentralisation has merely decentralised corruption, the Auroux laws have done little to stem unemployment, and retirement at 60 is already under attack. This leaves only the abolition of the death penalty.
"This is not much to set alongside the catastrophic record on unemployment, the reappearance of urban poverty, the rise of racism and xenophobia, and a long list of scandals including the HIV-contaminated blood affair and the Rainbow Warrior affair."
Only weeks prior to the election, official unemployment topped 3 million. More than a decade of job losses has given France what the OECD calls the industrialised world's gravest "structural unemployment".
The right won the election without offering solutions different from the failed ones of the SP.
"The leadership of the right holds almost the same policies as the Socialists on most of the big issues of the day, including the need to defend the franc, on foreign policy, privatisation and on employment", commented a financial journalist.
Until a new president is elected in 1995, there will be an uncomfortable "cohabitation" between a right parliamentary government and a Socialist president, Francois Mitterrand. The president exercises control over international policy and has some influence on the process of government.
Since Mitterrand's election in 1981, only once has he shared power with a right government, in 1986-8. Mitterrand dominated then, but the right had a majority of only four. With a majority of 290, things may be quite different.
However, the right is divided, and not just between the RPR and UDF. The UDF itself is a coalition of five parties. Of course, there will be an initial scramble over cabinet positions.
The right officially supports the Maastricht Treaty on European
unity, but 40% of the RPR and over 60% of the UDF said "No" in last September's referendum. It has been suggested that the right will be both government and opposition.
"Unemployment is the main reason for the development of the National Front", Alain Krivine, a leader of the LCR, explained to 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly. "The NF have this terrible slogan 'Three million unemployed. Three million immigrants in France — Out!'.
"It was very significant that without a big election campaign, the NF vote increased. It means today people are not voting for the person, Le Pen, but for his party, his program.
"Only the NF's vote increased. Their voters came from the populous cities where traditionally the PCF had strong support, in the south, Marseilles, and in the north, the old industrial cities and the former 'red suburbs' of Paris. In the second round in some places the only two candidates running off were the NF's and the PCF's.
"The NF has really grown roots in French society. The danger of a fascist and racist force like the NF will continue for a long time."
The right coalition parties realise they have lost support to the NF so now they use a similar racist language. Anti-racist activists say the new government's "get even tougher on immigrants" approach will be the most noticeable difference with the former SP government.
There is an urgent need to build a progressive alternative to the bankruptcy of the right and the SP, says Krivine. As a step towards this, a "Pledge to Change the Left" was endorsed by the reforming wing of the PCF, the left opposition in the SP (led by Jean-Pierre Chevenment, it has 12% support) and the LCR prior to the elections.
"It is very important to build a new left. The pledge outlines minimum political points. It is a sign that, despite the big division on the left and far left, there is a beginning of convergence through this document.
"In many cities there were joint meetings to explain publicly what we have in common. These were organised in at least 10 or 12 major cities." The pledge was used by candidates, who endorsed it as a reference point, not a common program.
The pledge results are difficult to determine given that two of the main participants were currents in other parties. The far
left groups won around 4%.
The green alliance, of Les Verts and Génération Ecologie, a month prior to the election had been predicted to win 15%-20%. Instead its vote was surprisingly low, 7.8%.
On February 17 the polls had the green alliance leading the SP. Rocard, with an eye on his presidential campaign in 1995, proposed a broad non-right "big bang" coalition of greens, "progressive" Communists, human rights activists and even conservative centrists.
There was strong opposition in the SP to Rocard's proposal, some arguing that it indicated a lack of confidence in the SP(!). Rocard is calling for a congress to convene such a coalition in June.
"For the SP the results are a major crisis. Rocard's big bang is near impossible", Krivine believes. "In fact, Rocard himself wasn't even re-elected. You will have those in the SP who will try to radicalise their language, as they are forced to appear more left, especially confronted by such a huge right majority."
This was evident even between the two rounds of voting — the SP's electoral advertisement had a radical pitch stressing the need to defend migrant and social rights.
The PCF maintained its vote. "It is important, for the moment the decline of the PCF's vote has stopped. Many people voted not for its program but to vote against the SP.
"The 'official' left is totally demoralised. In fact, today in France it is difficult to talk of the left", Krivine said. "I think the electoral results will accelerate the process of recomposition of the left."