By Craig Cormick
The capabilities of the Allied forces in the Gulf to cope with casualties from a protracted Gulf war have been brought into question by an international group of physicians.
The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), recipients of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize, have released a report which says that the US forces are "not medically prepared for war".
The report, "US Casualties in a Gulf War and the Medical Response", issued in mid-January, says that while no-one can accurately estimate the number of casualties likely in a war, official estimates given vary from as low as 3000 to as high as 125,000.
On January 11, the Los Angeles Times reported that US soldiers have been told that in trench warfare with Iraq, casualty rates could be as high as 50 per cent.
The IPPNW report quotes statistics from the Centre for Defense Information in Washington that ground fighting in the Gulf could involve 190,000 army troops and 45,000 marines. A 50 per cent casualty rate would total 125,000 casualties.
The report also says, "Notwithstanding the secrecy surrounding the Pentagon's casualty estimates, there are some clues as to what the military expects". One of these clues is that the US Army has a supply of more than 60,000 body bags for use in the Gulf.
"It is not known whether these body bags will be used only for the Allied military, or whether some will be used for civilian casualties", the report says.
The IPPNW have also estimated the total number of hospital beds available for Allied troops in the region. They include 1000 beds aboard the two US hospital ships The Mercy and The Comfort (but cited as operating at only 50 per cent of capacity). There are a further 500 beds in the Saudi Arabian Navy Fleet Hospital and 400 beds in a British field hospital there.
In November, there were a total estimated 6000 Western armed forces hospital beds in the Gulf.
Hospitals in Europe are also preparing for Allied casualties — including military hospitals in some NATO countries.
The report says that, according to Britain's Medical Campaign Against Nuclear War, Britain has standard contingency plans for up
to 40,000 US casualties to be treated in hospitals throughout Britain.
If the war is protracted, both military and civilian deaths will be high, and the US Centre for Defense Information estimates that civilian casualties will be in excess of 100,000. It also points out that in Iraq, of the 16.5 million population, 45% are children under the age of 15.
The report says, "Casualties, regardless of the number, will occur within a matter of weeks. Thus, any medical system devised to handle the injured will have to do so over an incredibly short period of time.
"Serious question exists about the ability to medi-vac high numbers of casualties quickly in a desert war against an enemy with sophisticated military technology."
The IPPNW also deal with the serious lack of civilian medical facilities in Iraq.
A six-person IPPNW delegation visited the Gulf in December 1990 and found that the economic embargo of Iraq had led to a total depletion of common drugs such as penicillin and insulin and serious shortages of others.
The delegation also pointed out that, since the World Health Organisation had stopped providing Hepatitis B testing kits to Iraq, about 10 per cent of blood donations were said to be contaminated with Hepatitis B.
Expressing concern at the potential for high civilian casualties, the report points out that in wars in the last decade, civilians have accounted for 84 per cent of all war dead.
As a case in point, the IPPNW authors point out the lack of burns units in the Gulf, particularly in Iraq, which has only 100 burns beds (Saudi Arabia and Egypt have similar numbers). Civilian burns casualties are likely to be high after intensive aerial bombings, such as have been conducted by the US and its allies, and burns victims require intensive medical treatment.
The report states that to treat even 1000 burns cases, that not only are 1000 hospital beds needed, but also 125 doctors, 500 nurses and 2800 litres of blood.
The report concludes, "In our judgement, the potential scale of the conflict in the Gulf could easily overwhelm not only US military medical capability, but the entire medical resources of the Gulf region.
"In short, we conclude that given the numbers of troops lined
up in the Gulf, and given the high-technology weaponry that will be employed, medical readiness is a virtually unattainable goal." I