Iran's presidential election on June 14 resulted in a large victory for self-described moderate, Hassan Rouhani, who received 50.7% of the vote in the first round, a high enough vote to ensure a second round vote was unnecessary.
Rouhani's win led to celebrations in many cities across Iran, as his candidacy had picked up momentum during the campaign. There were big pro-Rouhani mobilisations ahead of the vote.
The big impact that this movement in support of Rouhani had can be seen in the changes in opinion polls as measured by the Iranian Elections Tracking Polls. In the space of a week, support for Rouhani rose from 8.1% to 38%.
In that same week, 18.4% more people decided they would vote and reformist candidate, Mohammad Aref withdrew in favour of Rouhani.
What this dramatic shift indicates is that the large majority of those who decided late in the piece to vote gave their votes to Rouhani. This is related to the ongoing debate about whether to take part in elections within the 鈥淕reen Movement鈥 that rose in 2009.
The movement exploded onto the streets of Iran over allegations of widespread vote rigging in the 2009 poll in favour of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Protesters believed the election had been won by reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who is now under house arrest.
Many believed that it was useless to take part in the poll, as the results would not reflect popular will. As the election drew closer, however, more people saw the chance to raise their political demands via supporting a candidate.
For this sector, Rouhani became the candidate of choice. This was less due to support for him as an individual and more to do with him being seen as the best candidate around which to open a dialogue about what reforms were needed.
Rouhani was also seen as a candidate with a real chance at winning.
Rouhani is an establishment figure. He is a member of the Assembly of Experts, which decides who the 鈥渟upreme leader鈥 will be, the Expediency Council, which provides advice to the supreme leader, and a member of the National Security Council.
Despite this, the campaign for his election raised its own demands. This, in turn, had an impact on Rouhani. For instance, at a huge rally of hundreds of thousands held at Mashad, the : 鈥淧olitical prisoners must be freed.鈥
At Shiraz, the crowd chanted 鈥淵a Hossein! Mir Hossein!鈥 calling for the freedom of Hossein Mousavi.
Rouhani also projected himself as the candidate for the 鈥渨hole country鈥. One of the criticisms of the Green Movement was that it was too 鈥淭ehran centric鈥.
Rouhani reached out to the Sunni minority, most of which face harsh poverty and live in the Sistan Baluchestan province. He tweeted: 鈥淎s much as #Shia Muslims hold #Iran dear in their hearts, #Sunni Muslims also hold #Iran dear in their hearts. #unity #hope鈥; and 鈥淚'm a son of the #desert & know its beauty beside harshness. We must turn Sistan-Baluchistan into center of development & national #pride鈥.
Rouhani pitched his message at hope, change and unity, while being aware that the motor-force behind his campaign was youth. He tweeted: 鈥淢y govt will be cross-factional and include skilled figures from reformists to principlists. Rather than coalition, it will be meritocratic.鈥
This is seen as a rejection of the style of Ahmadinejad, who delighted in factional fights and who sought to humiliate and defeat opponents. Rouhani has named his government 鈥渢he government of hope and reason鈥.
Rouhani's campaign and victory has opened further space for those seeking reforms. For instance, the website EAworldview reported that at Rouhani's first post-victory press conference, 鈥淎n audience member shouted, 'Mousavi must be here!'鈥
A reporter from the reformist newspaper Etemaad asked when Mousavi would be released. In his careful reply, Rouhani said: 鈥淪ome issues need to be resolved but I am sure this will happen in time.鈥
After Iran's victory against South Korea to qualify for the world cup, there were mass celebrations at which 鈥淵a Hossein! Mir Hossein!鈥
This release of Mousavi is emerging as a central demand of those who supported Rouhani. It was enough to make the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei respond: 鈥淎ll should be subject to law. In 2009, they made damage to Iran & prevented people from tasting true joy of 40 million votes because of violating law 鈥
鈥淪ome violated law for materialistic desires or corrupt political goals 鈥 that we don鈥檛 want to judge now 鈥 and entered from illegal grounds 鈥 They hurt themselves, people, & country.
鈥淭he true path is path of law. We must all be subject to law & surrender to law.鈥
This, in a sense, sums up the dilemma for Rouhani. He was elected by people eager for reform to head a deeply embedded state structure resistant to any change, from which he came and to which he is loya.
However, conservative forces remain in disarray. The conservative vote was split in the election itself. This put even more wind in the sails of the reform movement. How far it can go is yet to be determined.