Doug Lorimer
"An opinion poll suggests most Iraqis feel their lives have improved since the war in Iraq began about a year ago", BBC News reported on March 16. The BBC was referring to a survey of 2652 Iraqis conducted over the last six months for broadcasters from the countries that have 155,000 troops occupying Iraq.
It is hardly remarkable that most of those surveyed — 56.7% — said that their lives were "much better or somewhat better" now than before last March's US-led invasion. The invasion brought an end to the 13-year, US-enforced, UN economic embargo. The embargo had dramatically cut the availability of many basic goods for most Iraqis and caused the deaths of at least 500,000 Iraqi children under the age of five, according to a 1999 United Nations Children's Fund estimate.
While 56.5% of the survey's respondents said the "availability of household basics" now was "very good" or "quite good", more than two-thirds said that the supply of electricity was "quite bad" or "very bad" and 68.6% said the same about the availability of jobs.
The responses to one question in the survey have been seized upon by some Western supporters of the US-led occupation of Iraq as justification for their stand. For example, Tony Parkinson, the Melbourne Age's international editor, argued in a March 19 opinion piece that the BBC-commissioned poll "suggests the need for the Americans to stay is well understood" by "ordinary Iraqis".
According to Parkinson, "the most revealing of all responses in the survey was that 85% of Iraqis are anxious for the Americans to stay, opposing any pullback until security is restored or an elected Iraqi government is fully in place".
How did Parkinson arrive at this conclusion? According to the published results of the survey (available at < http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/A href="mailto:pdfs/15_03_04_iraqsurvey.pdf"><pdfs/15_03_04_iraqsurvey.pdf>), when asked how long the US-led occupation forces should remain in Iraq, only 15% said the occupation forces "should leave now".
Yankee stay?
However, the survey did not reveal that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis "are anxious for the Americans to stay" until public security is restored or until an Iraqi governnment is in power.
While 65% of those surveyed said restoring "public security/safety in the country" was their first priority "for the next 12 months", when asked what they thought would improve public security in Iraq, 42.9% nominated the "immediate departure of coalition forces" and 96% nominated "creating job opportunities for the unemployed".
When asked "who should take care" of "regaining public security in the country", 7.3% named the USA, 5.3% named the "Coalition Forces" and 4.9% named the US-dominated Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). Just over 50% named either "Iraq", an "Iraqi government" or the "Iraqi people", while 12% named the Iraqi "army/police/ministry of interior".
While not indicated in the published survey results, according to the March 16 BBC News report, "only one in three Iraqi Arabs believed their country was liberated" by the US-led invasion, "compared to four out of five Kurds".
Kurds
Iraq's Kurds make up about 17% of the country's 25 million inhabitants and most of them have lived under a US-backed, Kurdish-controlled administration free from Baghdad's rule since 1991. There are only 200 US soldiers — from a civil-affairs battalion — in the Kurdish self-governed region in northern Iraq.
The BBC reported that respondents expressed "overwhelming disapproval of political violence, especially of attacks on the Iraqi police but also on American and other coalition forces" — though "nearly one in five told the pollsters that attacks on coalition forces were acceptable".
These results are hardly surprising given that, under the CPA's Order 14 (issued in June 2003), any individual who transmits information "by any means" which "incites violence" against the occupation forces may be imprisoned by for up to one year.
If a German media organisation had commissioned a survey of public opinion in France in June 1941 — a year after the German invasion and occupation of that country — it is highly unlikely that many respondents would have expressed sympathy for the actions of the underground French resistance movement or open opposition to the occupation forces.
The pollsters appear to have avoided areas where the population has actively resisted the occupation forces or been subjected to attacks, raids or even patrols by the occupation forces. Three-quarters of the respondents said they had "never had a personal encounter with coalition forces soldiers".
What is thus most revealing in the responses in the survey is just how many of the respondents openly indicated their opposition to and distrust of the occupation forces, the CPA and the CPA-appointed Iraqi Governing Council (IGC).
When asked if they oppose or support the "presence of Coalition Forces in Iraq", 50.9% said they were opposed, while 39.5% said they supported their presence. Two-thirds of the respondents said they had little or no confidence in the US and British occupation forces. Just over 62% expressed little or no confidence in the CPA.
When asked who they thought should take care of public security, reviving the economy, rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure (electricity, water, supply, telephones, etc.), ensuring that most people can make a decent living, rebuilding the education system and holding elections for a national government, less than 6% nominated the "Coalition Forces" and the CPA. Less than 6% nominated the IGC. Most respondents — up to 60% — declared in favour of an "Iraqi government" or the "Iraqi people" taking care of each of these issues.
When asked what sort of government they wanted, 20.5% said an "Islamic state", 27.5% said a "strong leader" and 48.5% said a "democracy". Only 6.5% cited the United States as "model for Iraq in the coming years". One fifth cited the United Arab Emirates while 6% cited Kuwait. Just under 50% said Iraq needs no model or did not answer the question.
Summarising other results of the survey, the BBC News report observed that a "key concern for the Americans as they prepare to hand over power in June is the unpopularity of the people they are putting in place. Their favoured son, Ahmed Chalabi, had no support at all, while Saddam Hussein remains one of the six most popular politicians in the country."
The IGC member who received the most support as the "Iraqi leader that you trust the most", was Ibrahim Jaaferi, head of the Shiite Dawa Party that was illegal under Saddam Hussein's regime. But he received just 7.7% support.
From 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, March 31, 2004.
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