Incumbent President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva came first in Brazil's October 1 presidential elections, scoring 48.6% of the vote. His nearest rival, Geraldo Alkmin, the main right-wing candidate and a member of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), scored 41.64%. Early polls suggested Lula could win an outright majority, however since no candidate won over 50% there will be a run-off election between Lula and Alkmin on October 29. Polls suggest that Lula is likely to win in the run-off.
Lula, a former metalworker and trade unionist, came to power in 2002 as the candidate of the Workers Party (PT). The PT has traditionally based itself on a radical pro-poor and anti-corporate platform, and Lula's election led to widespread expectation of significant changes after eight years under the PSDB's President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Lula's 2002 victory was seen as a rejection of the harsh neoliberal policies implemented by Cardoso.
In power, however, Lula continued, and in some cases deepened, the pro-corporate policies of his predecessor. In an interview published in the September edition of Latin American Perspectives, Frei Betto, a renowned left-wing theologian and activist who worked as a special adviser to Lula before leaving the position over the government's support for neoliberalism, commented that some of Lula's pro-corporate economic measures were even harsher than those demanded by the International Monetary Fund.
Betto also pointed to the participation of Brazilian troops in the occupation of Haiti and corruption scandals involving leading PT members as examples of the Lula government abandoning its principles.
The government has nonetheless been willing to take some stances independent of US imperialism, for instance being part of the successful opposition to the US-pushed Free Trade Area of the Americas, developing closer links with Cuba and opposing Washington's campaign to isolate Hugo Chavez's socialist government in Venezuela.
Betto also pointed to modest successes of social programs initiated by Lula, such as the Light for All program, which brought energy to almost the entire country, and the Zero Hunger program, which has provided economic assistance to 8 million people.
A September 28 Washington Post article explained that Alkmin was the favoured candidate of Brazil's business community. A victory for Alkmin would also be welcomed by Washington as a break from the growing trend of electoral victories in South America by candidates who advocate greater independence from the US.
An October 4 MercoPress article commented that the election results "show Brazil split almost in equal halves: north and northeast with more votes for Lula and centre, south and southeast with a majority for Alckmin. The split apparently is closely linked to the performance of the economy in the different regions ... In the state of Amazon where the economy boomed with the Manaos free trade area, Lula was supported by 78% of the electorate, while in Franca, Sao Paulo state, closely linked to the shoe wear industry and hit by Chinese imports, his support was only 25%."
MercoPress quoted an official PT statement on the run-off that argued: "It will be the confrontation of two projects for Brazil. On the one side progressive forces with a democratic, popular and sovereign Brazil; on the other the conservative block which ruled Brazil in the nineties and the first years of this century."
However, many of the poor and those from the social movements that were crucial to putting Lula in power in 2002 have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's neoliberal policies. In 2004, some parliamentarians who refused to vote for neoliberal policies were expelled from the PT, leading to the formation of the Party for Socialism and Liberty (PSOL).
Heloisa Helena, a former PT senator who helped found PSOL, ran for the presidency as a candidate for the Left Front, which was formed for the elections by PSOL, the Socialist Party of United Workers and the Brazilian Communist Party.
The Left Front ran under the slogans "Neither Lula, nor Alkmin!" and "Against the bankers, imperialism and the corrupt!" A Left Front statement argued that both the PT and PSDB govern for Brazil's richest families.
An important plank of the Left Front platform was suspending Brazil's foreign debt payments, which was a key PT policy before Lula's election. Helena also campaigned for the shortening of the working week with no loss of pay, radical agrarian reform and support for the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) — an alliance of Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia that seeks to build an alternative to US-enforced pro-corporate policies.
Although polls suggested Helena could score up to 9% of the vote, in the end she secured 6.85%, more than 6 million votes. The election results indicate that while Lula has been weakened by corruption scandals and disillusionment at the lack of change, he still retains significant support amongst the poor.
Despite the limitations of Lula's government, Betto pointed out that the income of the poorest 10% of Brazilians has increased by 23% under Lula. The alternative presented by Alkmin, which threatens to reverse whatever limited gains have been won, is not one that inspires confidence in the poor.
However, there are indications that, if he wins a second term, Lula will come under increased pressure to break with neoliberalism. The Movement of Rural Landless Workers (MST), one of Latin America's largest social movements, has made it clear it intends to mobilise in order to force the government to carry out land reform.
The August 30 Mail and Guardian quoted MST leader Joao Pedro Stedile as saying his organisation would take to the streets to force Lula to break with conservative economic policies. "We want to revive mass mobilisation and class struggle. The government will only change if the pressure comes from the streets."
Stedile attacked the failure of Lula to advance land reform, in a country where one per cent of the population owns nearly half of all land. "The government hasn't come close to its goal of settling 400,000 families in four years ... They've settled 150,000 at most, and half of that was done by the MST."
Like Betto, Stedile still supported Lula's re-election, rejecting the left alternative presented by Helena, arguing she had no social base. Betto argued that, for all of its faults, the Lula government created better conditions for social movements to pressure the government for changes than if the PSDB regained power.