Provisional results from New Zealand's September 17 parliamentary election suggest that the Labour government of Prime Minister Helen Clark has narrowly won a third term in office. While the final result will not be known until October 1, after the counting of special (overseas) ballots, it appears that Labour will continue to govern with the support of the Greens and other centre-left parties.
Since NZ's mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) system was introduced in 1996, major parties have needed the support of smaller parties to govern.
The Labour Party has won 50 seats, compared with the conservative National Party's 49. The Greens has won 6 seats and the Maori Party 4 seats. The populist centre-right New Zealand First has won 7 seats, the Christian centre-right United Future 3, while the right-wing Act party and the centre-left Progressive Coalition have won 1 seat each.
During the election campaign National offered tax cuts to all workers, while Labour targeted families with promises of increased support. National also ran its campaign on appeals to racism, calling for the abolition of the 7 Maori seats and an end to funding for Maori and Pacific Islander services.
Its campaign was also distinguished by dirty tricks, particularly the mass circulation of a leaflet warning voters against the Greens, which was sourced to a group of wealthy business owners associated with the Exclusive Brethren fundamentalist Christian sect.
While the leaflet may have cost the Greens a few votes, the outcome was probably more damaging to the National Party. Its leader, Don Brash, stated initially that National had no knowledge of the existence of the leaflet and had not sought any support from the Exclusive Brethren.
A few days later, after it was revealed that Brash had met with representatives of the sect, he admitted that he did know it was going to publish the anti-Greens leaflet and another one attacking Labour's policies, and told had the sect to "go for it".
Labour based its campaign on assertions that it could provide stable government, as opposed to the "divisive" policies of National. Labour pointed to the growing NZ economy and its opposition to visits by (US) nuclear-armed warships and to the US-led war in Iraq.
Early in the campaign, Brash stated that under a National government, NZ's ban on nuclear-armed warships entering its ports would be "gone by lunchtime", and that he would have "done the same as George Bush" in relation to Iraq.
After flirting with the idea of calling a referendum to decide NZ's position on nuclear-armed ships, National quickly realised that it was on a hiding to nothing with any policies supporting the US war machine. Brash then stated that there would be no attempt to reverse the current ban.
There was little discussion of industrial issues in the campaign. The National Party called for "reform" along the lines advocated by Australian Prime Minister John Howard. Labour, while warning that workers would be worse of under National, refused to support any increase in wages.
By contrast, the Greens called for an increase in the minimum wage to NZ$12 per hour, a call that was also taken up by the Maori party, NZ First and the Progressives.
The Greens also called for abolition of youth rates, more protection for casual workers, and supported union rights including the right to strike for political and social reasons.
The success story of the elections was the Maori Party, which only formed in 2004 in response to the Labour government's introduction of legislation limiting Maori claims to coastal and seabed areas. The party won 4 of the Maori seats with the remaining 3 still being held by Labour.
Tariana Turia, the former Labour MP who quit to form the Maori Party, kept her seat with co-leader and long-time Maori activist Pita Sharples also being elected.
The Maori Party has said that it would talk to both National and Labour to decide who it will support to govern, but the most likely scenario is that the Maori Party will support Labour in order to prevent National from governing.
Under MMP, voters have two votes — one for their electorate representative and one for the party they want to govern. The majority of voters who voted for the Maori Party in the Maori seats gave their party vote to Labour, indicating the direction they want the Maori Party to take.
With neither of the major parties able to govern in their own right, both are trying to woo the minor parties for support to form a government. The most likely outcome is the formation of a Labour-Green-Progressive coalition with support for particular issues from the Maori Party.
Green MP Keith Locke, who was re-elected on the Greens' party list, said he was generally pleased with the result of the elections. "The combined left vote for Labour, the Greens and Progressives stayed much the same as the last elections", he told 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly. "Voters rejected National's appeals to selfishness and Maori-bashing, which is encouraging."
While the Greens lost some support, receiving just over 5% of the vote as opposed to 7% in the 2002 elections, Locke believes that this is partly due to a misunderstanding of the MMP system. "We spoke to a lot of people who said that they supported the Greens, but were going to vote Labour to keep National out. Under MMP it's not so important which party gets the most votes, it's which combination of parties gets the most votes, but I think a lot of people still don't realise that."
Locke said that the Greens will be pressing for the adoption of their policies on developing alternative energy sources, increasing public transport, raising the minimum wage, universal child benefits and student allowances, and a ban on genetically engineered products, if they are in any coalition with Labour. They also are looking forward to working with the Maori Party, with whom they have a number of policies in common, most notably opposition to Labour's seabed and foreshore legislation, and continuing funding to disadvantaged Maori and Pasifika (Pacific Islander) communities.
In an amusing footnote to the election, Locke is preparing to prove that the Greens, unlike mainstream politicians, do keep their promises. In a public meeting during the campaign, he stated that if Act candidate Rodney Hide won the seat of Epsom, Locke would run naked down the main street of the well-heeled electorate. Hide won the seat.
Locke says that while he now regrets making the statement, he will keep his promise. The date for his nude run has not been set. "I'm talking to my make-up people", he said.
From 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, September 28, 2005.
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