Ocean study: 'Mass extinction event may already be underway'

October 18, 2013
Issue 
The combined effects of acidification and ocean warming will seal the fate of the world's coral reefs.

Mainstream media outlets gave substantial coverage to the UN鈥檚 new report on the climate change crisis late last month, which said the Earth鈥檚 climate is warming faster than at any point in the past 65 million years and that human activity is the cause.

Disappointingly, though not unsurprisingly, the news reports .

But another major scientific study, released a week later and including even graver warnings of a global environmental catastrophe, was mostly ignored.

The marine scientists that released the report on October 3 gave the starkest possible warning about the impact of carbon pollution on the oceans. They said: 鈥淲e are entering an , and exposing organisms to intolerable evolutionary pressure. The next mass extinction event may have already begun.

鈥淒eveloped, industrialised human society is living above the carrying capacity of the Earth, and the implications for the ocean, and thus for all humans, are huge.鈥

Report co-author Professor Alex Rogers of Somerville College, Oxford, : 鈥淭he health of the ocean is spiralling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought. We are seeing greater change, happening faster, and the effects are more imminent than previously anticipated.

鈥淭he situation should be of the gravest concern to everyone since everyone will be affected by changes in the ability of the ocean to support life on Earth.鈥

The ocean is by far the Earth鈥檚 largest carbon sink and has absorbed most of the excess carbon pollution put into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. The State of the Ocean 2013 report warned that this is making decisive changes to the ocean itself, causing a 鈥溾 鈥 acidification, ocean warming and deoxygenation (a fall in ocean oxygen levels).

The report said: 鈥淢ost, if not all, of the Earth鈥檚 five past mass extinction events have involved at least one of these three main symptoms of global carbon perturbations [or disruptions], all of which are present in the ocean today.鈥

Fossil records indicate have taken place in the Earth鈥檚 history. The biggest of these 鈥 the end Permian mass extinction 鈥 wiped out as much as 95% of marine life about 250 million years ago. Another, far better known, mass extinction event about 66 million years ago and is thought to have been caused by a huge meteor strike.

Another big species extinction took place 55 million years ago. Known as the (PETM), it was a period of rapid global warming associated with a huge release of greenhouse gases. 鈥淭oday鈥檚 rate of carbon release,鈥 said the State of the Ocean 2013 report, 鈥渋s at least 10 times faster than that which preceded the [PETM].鈥

Ocean acidification is a sign that the increase in CO虏 is surpassing the ocean鈥檚 capacity to absorb it. The more acid the ocean becomes, the bigger threat it poses to marine life 鈥 especially sea creatures that form their skeletons or shells from calcium carbonate, such as crustaceans, molluscs, corals and plankton.

The report predicts 鈥渆xtremely serious consequences for ocean life鈥 if the release of CO虏 does not fall, including 鈥渢he extinction of some species and decline in biodiversity overall鈥.

Acidification is taking place fastest at higher latitudes, but overall the report says 鈥済eological records indicate that the current acidification is unparalleled in at least the last 300 million years鈥.

Ocean warming is the second part of the 鈥渄eadly trio鈥. Average ocean temperatures have risen by 0.6掳C in the past 100 years. As the ocean gets warmer still, it will help trigger critical climate tipping points that will warm the entire planet even faster, hurtling it far beyond the climate in which today鈥檚 life has evolved.

Ocean warming will accelerate the death spiral of polar sea ice and risks the 鈥渋ncreased venting of the greenhouse gas methane from the Arctic seabed鈥, the report says.

Ongoing ocean warming will also wreak havoc on marine life. The report projects the 鈥渓oss of 60% of present biodiversity of exploited marine life and invertebrates, including numerous local extinctions鈥.

Each decade, fish are expected to migrate between 30 kilometres and 130 kilometres towards the poles, and live 3.5 metres deeper underwater, leading to a 40% fall in fish catch potential in tropical regions.

The report says: 鈥淎ll these changes will have massive economic and food security consequences, not least for the fishing industry and those who depend on it.鈥

The combined effects of acidification and ocean warming will also seal the fate of the world鈥檚 coral reefs, leading to their 鈥渢erminal and rapid decline鈥 by 2050. Australia鈥檚 Great Barrier Reef and Caribbean Sea reefs are likely to 鈥渟hift from coral domination to algal domination鈥.

The report says the global target to limit the average temperature rise to 2掳C, which was adopted at the Copenhagen UN climate conference in 2009, 鈥渋s not sufficient for coral reefs to survive. Lower targets should be urgently pursued.鈥

Deoxygenation 鈥 the third prong of the 鈥渄eadly trio鈥 鈥 is related to ocean warming and to high levels of nutrient run-off into the ocean from sewerage and agriculture. The report says overall ocean oxygen levels, which have declined consistently for the past five decades, could fall by between 1% and 7% by 2100. But this figure does not indicate the big rise in the number of low oxygen 鈥渄ead zones鈥, which has doubled every decade since the 1960s.

Whereas acidification mostly impacts upon smaller marine life, deoxygenation hits larger animals, such as Marlin and Tuna, hardest.

The State of the Ocean 2013 report cautions that the combined impact of this 鈥渄eadly trio鈥 will 鈥渉ave cascading consequences for marine biology, including altered food webs dynamics and the expansion of pathogens [causing disease]鈥. It also warns that it adds to other big problems affecting the ocean, such as chemical pollution and overfishing (up to 70% of the world鈥檚 fish stock is overfished).

鈥淲e may already have entered into an extinction period and not yet realised it,鈥 the report said.

鈥淲hat is certain is that the current carbon perturbations will have huge implications for humans, and may well be the most important challenge faced since the hominids evolved. The urgent need to reduce the pressure of all ocean stressors, especially CO虏 emissions, is well signposted.鈥

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