Eva Cheng
Despite winning 50.11% of the votes cast in Taiwan's March 20 presidential election — a big improvement from the 39.3% that won him the presidency in 2000 — incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's re-election remains in doubt.
Along with his vice-presidential running-mate Annette Lu, Chen is from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Lien Chan ran in partnership with James Soong, an opponent of his in 2000. Soong split from the KMT shortly before the 2000 election and formed the People First Party (PFP) shortly afterwards.
The Lien-Soong ticket scored 49.89%, down from the 59.9% the two candidates won combined in 2000, when Soong was running as an independent. In that year, Soong lost to Chen by only 2.5% while Lien, representing the KMT, won just 23.1%. The voter turnout on March 20 was 80.28%.
The KMT-PFP alliance refused to accept the March 20 election results, immediately launching two legal actions to suspend them and declare the ballots a fraud. A razor-thin 0.2% — or 29,518 votes — was all that separated the two presidential candidates. This gap was only one-eleventh of the unusually large number of invalid votes.
The KMT-PFP camp was also suspicious about the apparent assassination attempt on Chen and Lu on the eve of the ballot. The incident, which won Chen and Lu some voter sympathy, triggered Taipei to put the island in a state of "emergency response". The KMT alleged this stopped 200,000-250,000 soldiers and police from voting.
The KMT put the island under martial law rule for four decades until 1987. It is reasonable to assume that it has a strong support among the armed forces.
Immediately after the election results were announced, Lien demanded an "independent" inquiry into the alleged assassination, and invited US President George Bush's regime to take part.
Adding to the chaos, KMT and PFP supporters have staged round-the-clock protests outside Chen's presidential office in Taipei, since late on March 20.
In response to the legal actions, 21 local district courts ordered the seizure of all ballot boxes and related election documentation and put them in secured custody. A judicial ruling on whether to hold a recount could take up to six months.
Seeking a speedier recount, the KMT-PFP then asked Chen to issue an emergency order to authorise it. On March 24, Chen said he was willing to amend legislation to automatically permit a recount whenever the vote margin falls below 1%, applying the change retrospectively to include the March 20 election.
Chen is hoping to get the law amended within days, and complete the recount on April 1 with the assistance of 180,000 scrutineers.
The deputy minister for national defence, Lin Chong-pin, has responded to the allegation that soldiers were prevented from voting by declaring that only 13,000 troops were unable to vote. He added that the number was related to normal election needs and "had nothing to do with the activation of the emergency response system following the shooting of President Chen."
Even if Chen retains presidency after a recount, his winning margin is likely to remain tiny.
Unexpected winner
The main winner so far from the debacle seems to be Beijing. The Chinese government has been highly concerned that Chen, who is in favour of Taiwan formalising its de facto independence from China (rather than reverting to being part of China), would be elected. Taiwan has had de facto independence since 1949. It was a Japanese colony between 1895-1945.
In a clear move to strengthen the pro-independence support base, Chen has piggybacked Taiwan's first national referenda onto the March 20 presidential ballot.
Voters were asked to vote on whether to endorse a strengthening of Taiwan defence, in view of the big number of Chinese missiles aiming at Taiwan, and whether to endorse Taipei starting negotiations with Beijing on a future as equals.
Both referenda failed because participation fell below 50%. The "missile referendum" attracted a voter participation of 45.17%, with 6,510,000 votes in favour, 580,000 against and 360,000 invalid votes.
The "equal status referendum" saw 45.12% of eligible voters participating, including 6,320,000 votes in favour, 545,900 opposing and 578,000 invalid votes.
While Beijing has so far kept reports on the Taiwan election low profile, it has been keen to highlight the failure of the two referenda, emphasising the results were a big loss of "face" for Chen.
Douglas Paal, head of the American Institute in Taiwan, which is the de facto US embassy, met with leaders of both the DPP and the KMT after March 20. Results of those meetings weren't disclosed. Meanwhile, the Bush regime officially maintained a "neutral" position on the election dispute.
The balance of power among Taiwan's parliamentary parties is still being redrawn. After winning Taiwan's presidency in 2000 on a thin margin, the DPP in 2001 for the first time became the party with the biggest representation in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (council), by a precarious margin.
The DPP won 87 seats in the 225-seat legislature (or 33.38% of the popular vote), not much more than the KMT's 68 seats (28.56% of the popular vote). Three KMT splinter groups hold most of the remaining seats: the PFP (split away in 2000) won 46 seats (or 18.57% of popular vote); the Taiwan Solidarity Union (split away in 2001 and supported by former KMT chairperson Lee Teng-hui) secured 13 seats (or 7.76% of popular vote); and the New Party (split away in 1993) is holding one seat (or 2.61% of popular vote).
It's likely that the KMT might step up collaboration with some splinter groups in the legislative election at the end of 2004. It's already in alliance with the PFP and the NP in the so-called "Pan-Blue" alliance, in opposition to the so-called "Pan-Green" camp formed by the DPP and the TSU.
In the KMT Central Standing Committee on March 24, a proposal to merge with the PFP was put forward.
From 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, March 31, 2004.
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