BY JIM GREEN
The incoming administration of George W Bush is planning a controversial national missile defence (NMD) system as part of its broader military build-up — a reprise of the failed "Star Wars" efforts of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior in the 1980s.
In July, Congress passed, and President Bill Clinton signed, a law requiring the deployment of a NMD system as soon as technologically feasible. But the Bush administration plans to go beyond the 100-missile Alaska-based NMD system which was under consideration by the Clinton administration before test failures last year forced a deferral of key decisions.
The first step in the planned NMD program would be a land-based system capable of responding to limited strategic ballistic missile strikes. Potential deployment locations for the NMD elements include sites in Alaska and North Dakota.
Under a timetable being drafted by the Pentagon's Ballistic Missile Defense Organisation, Bush will decide by March whether to authorise construction of a new radar station at Shemya Island in Alaska. Work would begin later this year.
In addition to a land-based missile defence system, the Bush administration is considering sea- and space-based systems. Sea-based systems (also known as theatre missile defence, or TMD) would aim to protect US troops overseas as well as US allies such as Taiwan.
Space race
Bush's nominated defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld is now claiming that US civilian and military satellites require protection and, therefore, a major US militarisation of space. The US Space Command wants to dominate "the space dimension of military operations to protect US interests and investment."
Peter Shaw, from the non-government organisation Veterans for Peace, described Rumsfeld as a "radical operative of the military-industry complex who opposes the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, testified against the chemical weapons convention, opposed the SALT II arms agreement, and lobbied for the B-2 bomber and the MX missile — and has carried the flame for Star Wars. The United States and the world cannot afford this extreme agenda."
The Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space, and Veterans for Peace, are calling on the US Senate to reject Rumsfeld as defence secretary. However, Republican and Democrat politicians alike have been falling over themselves to praise the nominee.
At a recent meeting, Senator Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat's candidate for vice-president in the US presidential election, reminded Rumsfeld that the Gore/Lieberman ticket had promised to spend "$100 billion more" on the military than the Bush campaign.
New world order
Proponents of the various programs being considered by the Bush administration claim that the US is "vulnerable" to attacks from "rogue" nations such as North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria — none of which has missiles capable of reaching the US.
While Bush himself mumbles about the need for a "foreign-handed foreign policy", the agenda was spelt out by Mackubin Owens, a professor of strategy and force planning at the Naval War College and an adjunct fellow at the Lexington Institute: "This vulnerability will adversely affect the role the US plays in the international arena, making it a less reliable ally, or even causing it to retreat into isolation. And without American power to underwrite it, the liberal world order we take so much for granted is unlikely to endure for long."
With missile defence systems, however, US militarism will be all the more brazen and the New World Order will be secure. The anti-missile systems will not be defensive. To the extent they are: effective, or are seen to be: effective, they will allow the US to attack other countries with little chance of retaliation.
US plans could spark new arms and missile races: Russia and China are likely to increase their military capabilities to account for US missile defence systems.
Pursuit of missile defence systems would almost certainly involve unilateral US withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. The START I and II nuclear arms reduction treaties between the US and Russia would be jeopardised, and the proposed START III treaty would fall off the agenda.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to "tear up" all arms control agreements between the US and Russia if NMD is developed. In a joint statement released on July 18, the presidents of China and Russia said the US NMD system would pose "the most grave adverse consequences" for "security and international strategic stability".
When asked recently if deployment of missile defence plans could be reconciled with US-Russian arms control talks, Donald Rumsfeld promised to think about the question.
There are serious doubts however about whether national or theatre missile defence systems could be made to work. Most tests have failed. The challenges of knocking missiles out of the sky are akin to hitting a bullet with a bullet.
Arms build-up
In addition to the missile defence plans, Bush has also called for an extra US$20 billion spending on research to accelerate the adoption of new weapons, and an across-the-board increase in military pay of about 7% over and above increases approved by Congress over the past two years.
Programs pursued by the Clinton administration — such as the development of low-yield nuclear weapons, a program of subcritical nuclear weapons testing, and construction of a multi-billion dollar laser known as the National Ignition Facility to assist in nuclear weapons "modernisation" — will all continue under Bush.
Australia is one of very few countries to have expressed support for the US plans. Clinton's defence secretary William Cohen has stated that the US base at Pine Gap has been "very much" involved in missile defence research since October 1999.
In fact, the collaboration goes further back: since 1995, the federal government's Australian Defence Science and Technology Organisation has been involved in collaborative research on ballistic missile detection with the US Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation. Rocket tracking tests were conducted in 1995 (at Woomera in South Australia) and 1997 (in northern Western Australia).
The US is also negotiating with the Howard government to establish a missile testing base in Western Australia which would be linked to NMD.