Doug Lorimer
Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) announced on March 2 that not enough valid signatures had been collected to force a recall referendum on left-wing President Hugo Chavez. The decision is a blow for the US-backed, capitalist-led opposition.
After finishing the counting and validation of signatures submitted, the CNE found that only 1,832,493 signatures were valid — about 640,500 short of the 20% of voters constitutionally required to force a presidential recall referendum. The opposition claimed it had presented the CNE with 3.4 million valid signatures.
Following negotiations with the opposition, the CNE agreed to open 2700 centres around the country for 1,109,000 voters to reconfirm their signatures.
Immediately after the CNE's decision was announced, the working-class neighbourhoods of the capital, Caracas, burst into celebrations.
For days prior to the CNE's announcement, the four most important private TV-channels in Caracas have given the impression that a popular revolt is underway against the Chavez government. Globovision, the Venezuelan news-source for CNN, has portrayed a picture of a country wracked by street fighting.
Beginning on February 26, opponents of Chavez have staged a series of violent protests — blocking off streets and burning tyres — in the wealthier neighbourhoods of Caracas in order to provoke confrontations with National Guard troops.
On March 1, the Venezuelanalysis.com news web site reported that in Los Cortijos, a middle-class neighbourhood in eastern Caracas, "a driver frustrated by the road blockade in the area, was attacked by rioters with bottles and sticks. The driver responded by firing shots, killing 28-year-old bystander Nercy Rodriguez".
In La Urbina, another middle-class neighbourhood in eastern Caracas, "a neighbour was killed by anti-Chavez demonstrators after he complained about the roadblocks".
The favourable corporate media coverage of these violent middle-class protest actions appears to be an attempt by Chavez's opposition to give Washington a pretext to carry out "regime change" in Venezuela along the same lines as its March 2003 invasion of Iraq and its recent invasion of Haiti. A few hundred opponents of Chavez even demonstrated in front of the US embassy in Caracas in favour of a US invasion, holding up posters saying "1. Hussein; 2. Aristide; 3. Chavez."
On February 29, several hundred thousand Chavez supporters marched through the streets of Caracas to protest against US government funding of the opposition. Evidence that millions of dollars has been provided to opposition groups by the US State Department via the National Endowment for Democracy was revealed by Chavez on February 10. He cited documents obtained under the US Freedom of Information Act by the US Venezuela Solidarity Committee.
Chavez told the mass demonstration that his government will not hesitate to break off oil sales to the US if Washington continues to interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs.
A February 19 report by Wall Street brokerage firm Bear Stearns argues that the opposition in Venezuela has lost momentum, after losing important political battles with the Chavez government in the past two years, such as the December 2002 oil industry lock-out, which was broken by a government-organised workers' takeover of the state oil company.
The report — on the returns to be expected from purchasing Venezuelan government bonds — argues that "the prospects for the [recall] referendum are quite poor" and that the opposition only enjoys the support of about 25% of voters.
The report notes that Chavez remains Venezuela's most popular political figure, enjoying more than double the support of any of the leading opposition politicians, according to recent independent polls. With the economy expected to grow more than 6% this year, Chavez's popularity could be expected to grow, it argues.
"President Chavez seems increasingly likely to remain as head of Venezuela's government, and there seems to be a growing likelihood that he may go on to win the 2006 presidential election", the report concludes.
From 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, March 10, 2004.
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