BY
PHIL HEARSE
According to Labour MPs, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has only a few weeks to turn around the dreadful political mess in which his support for US President George Bush's looming attack on Iraq has landed him. Blair admits he has “staked his political future” on backing the warmongers. If Washington goes to war without a UN Security Council mandate, as BBC political correspondent Mark Mardell puts it, “all bets are off” as far as Blair's political future is concerned.
The monster demonstration against the war in central London on February 15 was the biggest political demonstration in British history — perhaps the biggest ever gathering of any kind in Britain. The police conceded that at least 1 million attended; organisers say it was 2 million.
The buildup to the rally was extraordinary. Three weeks before the rally, Labour government minister Tessa Jowell said demonstrators would be banned from entering Hyde Park, a traditional rallying point. She claimed this was at the request of the Royal Parks organisation, which apparently feared that demonstrators would damage the grass. This caused uproar and the government rapidly climbed down.
In the days before the march, two anti-war advertisements appeared in UK daily newspapers signed by dozens of media personalities, writers, actors and politicians — not just normal lefties like playwright Harold Pinter but also pop stars like Elton John and Sting. Richard Rodgers, Britain's most famous living architect, paid for one of the advertisements. Visiting US actors, such as Tim Robbins and George Clooney, also lent their support.
You know you are in deep trouble when even Elton John signs up against
you!
Incredible
The march itself was an incredible experience. Before the march, London's Metropolitan Police — experts in such matters — told the Stop the War Coalition in advance that its estimate of how many would show up — 300,000 — was way too low. As a consequence, cars were banned from central London and two separate starting points for the demonstration organised.
Normally, demonstrations in London start up to one hour late. Not on February 15. By 12 noon, the starting points were too full. There was little choice but to set off then. At that time, coaches and trains were still pouring into London from all over the country. It was not until 5pm that the last of the marchers set off.
The two marches merged at Piccadilly Circus as the streets of central London were packed, side to side and end to end in a sea of anti-war placards. Contingents from organisations were broken up and lost in the sea of people. As in all recent anti-war demonstrations there were huge numbers of students and young people, but a demonstration like this is a cross-section of the masses, with people of all ages and occupations.
As every news report said, for probably hundreds of thousands this was their first-ever political demonstration — a massive shock for media cynics who claim ordinary people will never be interested in politics.
One demonstrator, an older woman on her first ever demo, accurately summed up the views of the newcomers when she told Channel 4 news: “They want to have war after war. It's got to be stopped.”
At the rally, by far the best speech was delivered by London mayor Ken Livingston. He accurately described the role of US imperialism and warned the marchers against placing any faith in the UN Security Council. “There are countries there for sale”, he reminded the vast crowd. He warned that the position of “No war unless the UN approves it” was a trap.
This is indeed a weakness of much of the anti-war opposition in Britain. Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy spoke at the rally, but he and his party are not consistently anti-war. Kennedy has repeatedly refused to give any guarantees that the Liberal Democrats will not support a war if the UN Security Council approves it. A similar “not without UN approval” position was put at the rally by US Democrat, the Reverend Jesse Jackson.
No such constraints marred the positions of railworkers' union leader
Bob Crow, who said that Blair “ain't seen nothing yet” and called for industrial
action and blockades of city centres if war breaks out.
'Bring down Blair!'
Marxist writer Tariq Ali, a leader of the anti-Vietnam War movement in the 1960s and '70s, said that in times of crisis it was sometimes necessary to bring down governments.“Bring down Blair!”, Ali declared. Such talk would have seemed like fantasy a couple of months ago, but now it is not.
On the same day as the huge London mobilisation, Blair spoke at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow, bringing forward his speech to the morning to avoid the anti-war demonstrators who gathered outside in the conference venue in the afternoon. According to the February 16 Sunday Mail, 100,000 protesters gathered in the biggest protest seen in Glasgow since 25,000 demonstrated against the hated poll tax in 1990.
“I do not court unpopularity as a badge of honour”, Blair told the Scottish Labour members, “but sometimes it is the price of leadership”. Blair swivelled the argument away from Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction towards the dictatorial nature of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime, claiming that millions had died as a result of Saddam's actions. In effect, Blair had now openly embraced the US position of “regime change” and the “liberation” of the people of Iraq.
“[Blair] slipped away just as the swelling river of protesters began their march through the city centre in the bright winter sunshine”, the Sunday Mail reported. “Organisers had hoped around 25,000 would take part but, as the crowds snaked through the city from Glasgow Green to the Scottish Exhibition and Conference Centre, it was obvious that even they had underestimated opposition to the looming conflict...
“It set off from Glasgow Green just after 11am and, for more than three hours, a solid stream of people filled the three-mile route across the city centre... It took around three hours for the people gathered at Glasgow Green to empty the area. And thousands more joined the march as it snaked through the city...
“The rally was organised by the Scottish Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. But this was no ordinary parade. It was the people's parade. Children of all ages joined in the march, followed closely by their parents, aunts, uncles, and grandparents. They chanted: "George Bush terrorist, Tony Blair terrorist". They also sang: "1, 2, 3, 4, we don't want your bloody war, 5, 6, 7, 8 we don't want your bloody hate." The march brought Glasgow to a standstill...
“Meanwhile, thousands more would-be protesters were left behind in Edinburgh during chaos at Waverley station. ScotRail's shuttle service between the two cities failed to cope with the crowds — despite laying on four trains per hour. Some carriages were so packed that scheduled stops at Haymarket, Linlithgow, Falkirk and other stations on the line were scrapped and the trains just swept through.”
Blair's whole strategy is now based on the hope that a second UN resolution will be passed and that the war will begin with Security Council approval. Then, he hopes, anti-war opposition will melt away in the face of the argument that the “international community” is taking action and not the US unilaterally. This favourable series of events has to be accompanied by a rapid US victory, minimal Iraqi civilian casualties and scenes of large crowds welcoming the overthrow of Saddam and greeting US troops.
Blair will be very lucky if every single aspect of his best-case scenario works out. But neither is it completely impossible that this will be the course of events.
Anti-war opposition among the people who came to the February 15 demonstration, and the millions who agree with them, is unlikely to wither away, but the opinion polls could show a shift to a pro-war majority if war is sanctioned by the UN. That of course is the Achilles heel of the “give the weapons inspectors more time” argument.
If war is not sanctioned by the UN and Britain goes to war with the US alone, then Blair would probably be forced to resign. He would still be in deep trouble if a UN-sanctioned war resulted in massive causalities or became prolonged.
However, for the moment the initiative is with the anti-war movement and the Blairites are waging a desperate rearguard action. Events throughout the country are being planned for the day war breaks out, and another mass demonstration will take place the Saturday following.
Irrespective of the precise events of the next few weeks, the anti-war movement and the February 15 demonstrations will have immense long-term consequences. Hundreds of thousands of young people are being radicalised. They will be the union shop stewards, anti-imperialist activists and far-left campaigners of the future.
A subsidiary factor is the mobilisation of tens of thousands of young Asian Muslims, brought to the demonstration by the Muslim Association of Britain, which was a co-organiser of the march. It remains to be seen whether the radicalism of these young people will be kept within the ideological bounds of Islam.
Hostility to the British Labour Party and to US imperialism is an epidemic among young people in Britain. No Security Council resolution is going to change that. Through the anti-war movement, the political right and US political influence have suffered massive defeats throughout Europe, factors which will have repercussions for years to come.
[Phil Hearse is a member of the editorial board of the London-based Socialist Resistance monthly newspaper. Visit .]
From 91×ÔÅÄÂÛ̳ Weekly, February 26, 2003.
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