The conservative Liberal National Party (LNP) won the October 26 Queensland election with a . They will be bolstered by three conservative Katter Australia Party (KAP) MPs.
While the ,聽it was not on the scale of Labor鈥檚 decimation in 2012, as some had feared. It even seemed on election night that Labor had done better than expected and would end up being able to retain minority government.
Labor will likely win 35 seats with a 7% statewide swing against it. There was a 6% swing towards the LNP and the Greens鈥 retained its share of the vote, with a marginal increase.
Labor鈥檚 promises to make 50c public transport fares permanent, increase mining royalties and bring in free primary school lunches were popular, especially in a cost-of-living crisis. Some Greens voters may have been persuaded to vote for it, given the prediction of a LNP landslide.
Abortion rights became an issue during the campaign when KAP鈥檚 Robbie Katter to repeal or wind back the 2018 law decriminalising abortion.
LNP leader David Crisafulli鈥檚 refusal 鈥 鈥 to promise to retain legal abortion would have helped swing votes back to Labor.
Crisafulli鈥檚 refusal to give a clear answer on abortion reflected the LNP鈥檚 鈥渟mall target鈥 election campaign, which focussed on a series of聽鈥渢ough on crime鈥 talking points. The LNP promised very little, relying on people鈥檚 dissatisfaction with Labor to get it over the line.
The Greens projected to double its representation from two MPs, but both faced swings. At the time of writing, Amy MacMahon still has a chance to win in South Brisbane, although Labor is ahead. Michael Berkman in Maiwar was returned, despite a 7% swing.
Labor MPs, including the Prime Minister, and聽 such as Sky News, argued that the Greens suffered a negative swing because they are 鈥渢oo radical鈥. The ABC 聽the results as 鈥渁 shocker鈥.
Albanese that they show 鈥渢hat people who elected the Greens to parliament expected them to play a progressive role, not a blocking role鈥.
Former Brisbane City Councillor and Greens activist wrote that, statewide, the Greens had not suffered from a negative swing and dismissed the idea that the party is 鈥渢oo radical鈥.
鈥淚t鈥檚 funny how whenever the Greens win seats, the default media establishment explanation is that we鈥檝e successfully 鈥榤ainstreamed鈥 our party and 鈥榞rown beyond our activist roots鈥 but when we don鈥檛 win seats, it鈥檚 supposedly because we鈥檙e 鈥榯oo extreme鈥,鈥 he said on October 29.
In some places, such as Kuraby booth in Stretton, the Greens vote rose from 9.7% in 2020 to a 41%. He said it bodes well for Remah Naji鈥檚 campaign for the federal seat of Moreton.
Sriranganathan said that as the Greens start to win support from former Labor and LNP voters, they are seen as a threat and therefore face more direct attacks from the major parties.
He said Labor鈥檚 adoption of some Greens polices would also have helped Labor win some votes back from the Greens.
鈥淲hen presented with a choice between two seemingly similar parties, progressive voters who were worried about the rise of the LNP and concerned about regression on issues like abortion leaned towards the party that they felt was more powerful (ie Labor),鈥 Sriranganathan said.
A Greens victory in South Brisbane will depend on postal votes and preferences that could push the LNP into second place. This would mean Labor鈥檚 preferences would help return MacMahon. Otherwise, Labor will be elected on LNP preferences.