A recent article in predicts that Australia will be one of the countries with the highest risk of extinctions worldwide, as temperatures increase above 1.5°C.
The December 5 piece by Mark Urban, from the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut, suggests that global warming is likely to cause a rapid increase in the risk of extinctions around the world above 1.5°C, the limit agreed under the Paris Agreement.
Under the highest emission scenario, approximately one third of species globally would be at risk of extinction.
The paper, which draws on 485 studies worldwide, considers extinction risks under future climate scenarios. The extinction risk varies depending on geography, ecosystem type and other factors.
Species from Australia, New Zealand and South America are most at risk, it reports, as are amphibians and species from mountain, island and freshwater ecosystems.
Determining which species most need protection is critical to protect biodiversity, until emissions can be reduced and climate change halted. Under higher emissions scenarios, protecting threatened species becomes much harder, as so many species are likely to be affected.
Climate change is already affecting biodiversity worldwide, including species’ abundance, range, interactions and their ecosystems.
While some species can relocate or adapt, not all are able to and, for many, their populations then decline, reduce in range or become extinct.
Many land-based species in the island nations of Australia and New Zealand can only relocate so far before they reach the sea. Furthermore, due to the latitude of both countries, which affect climate and weather patterns, the risk of extinctions is very high.
The southern half of the Australian continent is predicted to be the most vulnerable to increased extinctions. Australian species which are already threatened or endangered, such as iconic koalas, Tasmanian devils and platypuses, as climate change affects their habitats.
Fires of greater intensity, longer droughts and a reduction in rainfall in the southern half of Australia, will , says Australia’s national science agency.  that 25% of gross domestic product would be needed to fully recover Australia’s threatened species.
Amphibians, such as frogs and toads, and species in freshwater rivers and ecosystems are high risk, Urban says, as water sources dry up and opportunities to relocate are limited. Species restricted to alpine habitats also have limited opportunities to move, as mountain tops limit movement to colder locations for many species.
The attributes Australia's high risk for extinctions primarily to fragmented habitat, which will make it more difficult for species to move. It supports protecting and reducing fragmentation for threatened and vulnerable species, to make movement easier for those at risk of extinction.
More national parks, nature reserves and wildlife corridors, including the proposed Great Koala National Park, would help preserve biodiversity and contribute towards reducing emissions.
The Biodiversity Council supports more effective environmental laws, and the creation of an independent Environment Protection Agency (EPA), with enforcement powers to protect habitat.
Although the Labor government said last year it would contemplate an EPA as part of its , it is not yet clear if they will pass or in what form, due to pressure from and, at the last minute, the .
Climate change is currently accelerating.
Although last year was the hottest year on record (over 1.5°C), the official level of global warming is currently 1.3°C. For 1.5°C to be the official level of global warming, several years would need to be 1.5°C or above.
As warming increases over 1.5°C on average, it is likely to be more difficult to slow.
Protecting and restoring biodiverse forests, especially old growth forests, combined with seriously reducing emissions, should help limit warming as well as preserving biodiversity.
Approximately are unique to this continent. Australia is already the driest inhabited continent on Earth, with 70% desert, and is extremely susceptible to fire.
Supporting a speedy transition to clean renewable energy and better protecting our unique biodiversity, including old-growth forests, should be a top priority for all Australian governments. It should also be a critical consideration for voters in a federal election year, as the impacts of climate change worldwide accelerate.